6.2 ACT trends
This section looks at the following climate topics:
- Climate trends in the ACT
- Climate change impacts
- Future climate change impacts
- Current greenhouse gas emissions
- Future greenhouse gas reductions
What are the main climate change findings from the 2023 ACT State of the Environment Report? Watch the video and see the infographic below to find out.
Climate trends in the ACT
The ACT’s climate is changing. The region is experiencing rising temperatures, more extreme weather events, and more years with lower annual rainfall.
Canberra’s annual average maximum temperatures have risen by over 1.8°C since records began in 1914. Average minimum temperatures have risen more, by around 2.2°C. Nine out of the ten hottest years in the ACT have occurred since 2006.
This graph shows the change in the ACT average maximum temperature from 1926 to 2022. Light brown bars mean that the temperature is higher than average, while light blue bars are lower than average. Since 1997, every year except 2022 has been hotter than average showing a warming trend for the ACT.
Data sourced from: Bureau of Meteorology.
This picture shows the average ACT and NSW temperatures from 1913 to 2022. Each stripe represents the annual average temperature, where cool years are blue and hot years are red. Darker colours represent the coolest or hottest years. So, dark blue represents a particularly cold year (there are a lot before 1950) and dark red represents a particularly hot year (there have been a lot recently). The stripes show that annual average temperatures are getting warmer.
Source: ShowYourStripes.
Extreme temperatures (above 35°C) are becoming more frequent in the ACT. Days above 40°C have particularly increased in the last decade. In the 86 years from 1926 to 2012, the ACT only experienced 11 days above 40°C. We then experienced 17 days above 40°C in the nine years between 2013 and 2022 alone!
The hottest year experienced in the ACT was 2019, with 33 days over 35°C and six days over 40°C. There have been far more monthly heat records broken in NSW and the ACT than cold weather records.
Black Summer
The 2019-20 summer was one of extreme temperatures. On 4 January 2020, the ACT had its hottest day on record at 44°C. The mean maximum and minimum temperatures over the summer were the third warmest on record. These temperatures, combined with below-average rainfall, created ideal conditions for the large and severe bushfires that occurred (see Bushfires in the ACT).
Minimum temperatures are also changing in the ACT. Between 1914 and 2022, there was around a 70% decrease in the annual number of days below 10°C, and a 30% decrease in the annual number of nights below 0°C. These changes in minimum temperatures are impacting species and ecosystemsA biological community of interacting living and non-living things. that depend on cold weather to survive.
Climate change impacts
The hotter temperatures, decreased rainfall, and more frequent and extreme weather events caused by climate change all have severe consequences for ecosystemA biological community of interacting living and non-living things. health and biodiversity, waterways, ecosystem servicesThe various benefits that humans get from healthy ecosystems. This includes things like food, clean air and water, natural crop pollination and flood control., and human health and wellbeing.
What are the impacts of climate change we’re seeing in the ACT? Many have already been observed and include:
- Less water – Despite the very wet conditions in the ACT from 2020 to 2022, in most years there are extended periods of lower than average rainfall. This means that there is less water for the environment and for the ACT community (see Water – Water resources).
- More fire risk –There is an increasing number of fire seasons with elevated fire risk that are starting earlier and lasting longer. Long periods of elevated fire risk increase the chance of a significant bushfire like the 2020 fires (see Bushfires in the ACT).
- Loss of biodiversityThe variety of all life and living processes in the environment. – More trees and other vegetation have been dying in the ACT’s urban areas, parks and reserves. This could mean that climate conditions in the ACT region are no longer suitable for some plant species. A warming and drying climate also increases pressure on our native animals by reducing the availability of food and habitat, increasing the occurrence of fire, and increasing the threat of invasive species.
- Degraded water quality – Warmer water temperatures and higher levels of pollutants such as nutrients and sedimentation have impacted on waterways. This has led to more frequent blue-green algal blooms in Canberra’s lakes, preventing people from using them for recreation. It has also impacted on the ecosystemA biological community of interacting living and non-living things. health of rivers and wetlands (see Water).
- Community health – The increase in hotter temperatures has caused significant mental and physical health impacts on vulnerable people, prevented participation in outdoor exercise activities, and has limited the safe working hours for people employed in industries that are exposed to hot conditions.
Click on the pictures below for more information on how climate change impacts on biodiversityThe variety of all life and living processes in the environment. and ecosystemA biological community of interacting living and non-living things. health, the urban environment, and primary production (agriculture).
Future climate change impacts
Climate change will continue to impact the ACT for decades to come. Scientists at the Bureau of Meteorology have used climate modelling to predict the most significant future impacts of climate change in the ACT.
It is important to note that these impacts depend on the level of global greenhouse gasA gas in the atmosphere (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) that absorbs and emits energy, warming the Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change. emissions today and in the future. Reducing emissions around the world now could improve future scenarios.
Future impacts include:
- even warmer average temperatures
- longer and more frequent heatwaves
- more days above 35°C (up to five extra hot days per year by 2030 and 20 more per year by 2070)
- less rainfall, with longer and more frequent droughts
- more frequent and severe storms over a longer summer season
- fewer nights below 2°C, and
- fewer frosts.
These predicted changes will significantly increase climate pressures on the natural and urban environment.
The importance of urban trees to minimise climate change impacts
Trees and other vegetation in urban areas provide many benefits such as food and habitat for biodiversityThe variety of all life and living processes in the environment., and benefits to people’s physical and mental health. But did you know that trees are also vital to reduce the impacts of hot days?
For more information see:
ACT’s greenhouse gas emissions
Although the ACT’s emissions are only a small contribution to global emissions, the combined reductions from many regions across the world will substantially contribute to minimising the severity of future climate change. We each have a responsibility to preserve our environment. This responsibility means that all of us – governments, corporations and individuals – need to make changes to what we do.
In 2021–22, the ACT’s total greenhouse gasA gas in the atmosphere (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) that absorbs and emits energy, warming the Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change. emissions were 1,818,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalentA measure of all greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and so on, that would give the same warming as the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide alone. Carbon dioxide equivalent is also called CO2-e. (also called CO2-e). That’s 3.6 tonnes for each person living in the ACT.
The good news is that the ACT’s total greenhouse gasA gas in the atmosphere (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) that absorbs and emits energy, warming the Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change. emissions have decreased by 55% since 2018. This was mainly achieved when the ACT reached its 100% renewable electricityEnergy produced from natural sources that are constantly replenished and never run out. Examples include solar, wind, and hydro power from dams. supply target in 2020 (see Human settlements – Energy). This means that there are no greenhouse gasA gas in the atmosphere (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) that absorbs and emits energy, warming the Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change. emissions from the supply of the region’s electricity.
Because the ACT now has 100% renewable electricityEnergy produced from natural sources that are constantly replenished and never run out. Examples include solar, wind, and hydro power from dams., our greenhouse gasA gas in the atmosphere (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) that absorbs and emits energy, warming the Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change. emissions mainly come from transport and stationary energyThe combustion of fuel for energy purposes in all uses other than transport.. In 2021–22, 56% of ACT’s greenhouse gasA gas in the atmosphere (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) that absorbs and emits energy, warming the Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change. emissions came from road transport (such as cars, buses and trucks) and 24% came from stationary energyThe combustion of fuel for energy purposes in all uses other than transport. (mostly natural gas – this category does not include electricity). The remaining emissions were from industrial processes and product use (9%), waste processing and decomposition (8%), aviation (2%) and agriculture (less than 1%).
This graph shows the ACT’s greenhouse gasA gas in the atmosphere (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) that absorbs and emits energy, warming the Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change. emissions in 2021–22. Over half (56%) of the emissions came from transport (such as cars, buses and trucks), and nearly one quarter (24%) from stationary energyThe combustion of fuel for energy purposes in all uses other than transport. (mostly natural gas, which is used for things like cooking and heating – this category does not include electricity).
Data sourced from: Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate.
Future greenhouse gas reductions
and heating but is responsible for nearly one quarter
of the ACT’s greenhouse gasA gas in the atmosphere (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) that absorbs and emits energy, warming the Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change. emissions.
Source: Andrew Valdivia.
Looking ahead, transport and natural gas use are the main focus areas for reducing greenhouse gasA gas in the atmosphere (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) that absorbs and emits energy, warming the Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change. emissions in the ACT. However, current trends in emissions show no significant reductions for either transport or natural gas. This means that the ACT still has many challenges to reduce our emissions and meet our legislated future emissions targets. Canberra’s population growth will also present challenges to further reductions.
Alongside government actions to phase out natural gas and improve access to low-emissions transport options, the community also has an important role to play in decreasing greenhouse gasA gas in the atmosphere (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) that absorbs and emits energy, warming the Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the main cause of climate change. emissions in the ACT. For ideas about ways you can reduce your emissions in your everyday practices, see What you can do.